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07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Alex Rodriguez still on the verge of reaching one of baseball's most exclusive milestones, the New York Yankees will wrap up a four-game series with the Cleveland Indians tonight at Progressive Field.
Rodriguez remains one home run shy of becoming only the seventh player in major league history to hit 600 for his career. The superstar third baseman has now gone six games and 26 at-bats since belting No. 599 in a 10-4 win over Kansas City on July 22.
The three-time MVP still made a significant contribution to the Yankees' 8-0 rout of the Indians last night, going 2-for-5 and knocking in his team's first run with a first-inning single.
Robinson Cano did deliver a solo home run for New York, while Mark Teixeira and Brett Gardner each went 2-for-4 with two RBI to help back a strong effort from starting pitcher A.J. Burnett.
Burnett (9-8) scattered seven hits and struck out seven Cleveland batters over the first 6 1/3 innings to win his second straight start and lead the Yankees to their sixth victory in their past eight contests. New York owns the best record in the majors at 64-36, two games better than fellow American League East member Tampa Bay.
"He was locating his fastball to the corners as well as I've ever seen it," Indians designated hitter Travis Hafner said of Burnett. "Then late in the count he was throwing the curveball and getting some strikeouts. He was good [Wednesday]."
Fausto Carmona (10-8) was far less effective for Cleveland, as the 2010 All- Star was hammered for seven runs and 10 hits before being lifted after only 2 2/3 innings.
"I think the key for us was swinging at strikes," said Rodriguez. "After the first two innings [Carmona] had 40-plus pitches. That's always a key for us is to make him throw as many pitches as we can. Even when we make outs, make productive outs."
Rodriguez will be taking his swings tonight off Mitch Talbot in the Cleveland rookie's second-ever encounter with the Yankees. The young right-hander was dealt a loss in an 11-2 road setback to New York on May 31 after allowing three runs over 6 1/3 innings, with Rodriguez coming through with an RBI single in two official at-bats against the Indians starter.
Talbot enters tonight's clash mired in a lengthy slump, as he's dropped five of six decisions since a surprising 7-4 beginning to the season and has posted a mediocre 5.01 ERA over his last seven starts. He served up two homers and was tagged for five runs in 5 2/3 innings of a home loss to Tampa Bay last Saturday, despite registering a career-best eight strikeouts.
The 26-year-old has recorded a respectable 4.08 ERA in his first season with the Indians, however. Talbot was acquired by Cleveland from the Rays in a trade this past winter.
New York will give Dustin Moseley his first start of the year tonight as the team searches for a temporary fill-in for the injured Andy Pettitte. The right-hander has made four relief appearances for the Yankees since being called up from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre earlier this month, including a excellent 4 2/3-inning stint against Kansas City on Saturday in which he yielded no runs and only a single hit.
Moseley took over in that game for Sergio Mitre, who was rocked for seven runs (five earned) and seven hits over the first 4 1/3 frames and sent to the bullpen as a result of that shaky showing.
The 28-year-old Moseley does have major-league starting experience, having begun 23 games during a four-year tenure with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim from 2006-09. He also has good lifetime numbers against Cleveland, sporting a 3-0 record with a 4.35 ERA in three starts and two relief outings versus the Tribe.
New York took three of four games from the Indians in a late-May series at Yankee Stadium and has prevailed in nine of the last 12 clashes between the teams. In their only visit to Cleveland last season, the Yankees won three of four tests from the Tribe.
<< Newcastle defender Taylor to miss three months
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle center back Steven Taylor will
be sidelined three months with a shoulder injury, the English Premier League
club revealed Thursday.
Taylor, 24, dislocated the shoulder in a preseason friendly
<< White Sox put home streak on line in finale with Mariners
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox try for their first 11-game home
winning streak in 21 years this evening, when they attempt to complete a four-
game sweep of the Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago won for the 17th time
<< Phils shoot for eighth straight win, sweep of D-Backs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Philadelphia Phillies wait for Roy Oswalt to
approve a trade to them, they will shoot for a three-game sweep of the Arizona
Diamondbacks tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
According to multiple reports, the Phillies
<< Padres send out Latos in hopes of taking set from Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mat Latos attempts to win his seventh straight decision
this evening, when the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers close out a
three-game series at Petco Park.
Latos, who had recently been sidelined with a strained le
Southern Illinois adds six players, two from FBS >>
Carbondale, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Southern Illinois football team has added
six players to its 2010 roster.
Highlighting the group are Football Bowl Subdivision transfers Carl Harris, a
wide receiver from Rutgers, and Myron Walker, a nos
Nationals decide to put Strasburg on DL >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Nationals have decided to
put rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg on the 15-day disabled list with stiffness
in his shoulder.
Strasburg is expected to rest for the next 3-to-4 days and have
A sad, tragic end in Memphis >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A body riddled with bullets was found in
Southeast Memphis Wednesday afternoon in a thickly wooded area near FedEx's
world headquarters.
It was just another sad ending in a city that has become notorious f
Vince Young to avoid discipline by NFL >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tennessee Titans quarterback Vince Young
will reportedly escape punishment by the NFL for his part in a fight at a
Dallas strip club last month.
The Tennessean cited unnamed sources ahead of
Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.
MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.
Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.
Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.
After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.
Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.
Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.
If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.
Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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