Argentina eliminates Mexico again

Soccer Betting Lines

06/27/2010 - Johannesburg, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Tevez and Gonzalo Higuain scored in a seven-minute stretch midway through the first half, and Argentina beat Mexico, 3-1, on Sunday at Ellis Park Stadium to return to the quarterfinals of the FIFA World Cup.

Tevez added a second goal early in the second half and Javier Hernandez scored Mexico's lone goal in the 71st minute.

Argentina also defeated Mexico in the round of 16 four years ago, and will try to advance past the quarterfinals for the first time since finishing second in 1990, when it lost in the final to West Germany.

Argentina plays Germany in the quarterfinals Saturday. Germany advanced with a 4-1 win over England on Sunday. Argentina and Germany met in the quarterfinals four years ago, with Germany winning on penalty kicks.

Mexico was eliminated in the round of 16 for the fifth straight time.

The Mexicans enjoyed the better chances early, but Carlos Salcido had his long shot tipped off the crossbar by Argentina goalkeeper Sergio Romero and Andres Guardado curled a shot just wide of the left post.

Lio Messi forced a save from Mexico goalkeeper Oscar Perez, then Hernandez drilled a long shot wide right before Argentina seized control of the match on a goal that should not have counted in the 26th minute.

Messi and Tevez combined on the initial chance that led to Argentina's opener, as Tevez had the ball taken off his feet by Perez just inside the box. But the ball deflected back to Messi, who played a short chip pass to an open Tevez.

Tevez, who was a few yards offsides when Messi played the ball, headed it into an empty net from a few steps out. Referee Roberto Rosetti consulted his sideline official and players from both teams huddled around, but the goal stood.

Argentina doubled its lead in the 33rd minute when Higuain took advantage of a turnover by Mexico's Ricardo Osorio, who misplayed the ball just outside the area. Higuain took the ball into the box, rounded Perez, and slotted home for his tournament-high fourth goal.

Higuain nearly added another goal before the break, but Osorio got a piece of the ball just before Higuain's header, and the shot went wide left.

Mexico came close to pulling a goal back before halftime, but Hernandez was just inches away from directing a cross on goal from close range.

Tevez handed Argentina a three-goal lead seven minutes into the second half as he struck a 25-yard shot into the top-right corner that left Perez no chance.

Hernandez had a free header in the 63rd minute but fired over the bar and then a cross from Pablo Barrera was sent on goal in the 70th for Mexico but Gabriel Heinze cleared it off the line for Argentina.

Mexico did pull a goal back in the 71st, when Hernandez accepted a pass at the top of the area with his back to goal, made a quick turn toward the left post, drove into the area and then finished well to the near post from 10 yards.

Heinze made another fine defensive play on the line to clear a dangerous ball 10 minutes from time, and Argentina held on over the final 10 minutes for its fourth win in as many games.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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