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05/11/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Most casual horse racing fans hold the Kentucky Derby in high regard. They also get revved up for the Belmont Stakes if a horse is in line for a possible Triple Crown. On the other hand, the Preakness Stakes usually gets lost in the shuffle.
Passionate fans of the sport, especially chalk players, love the Preakness as it usually is the most formful of the three races. In fact, the favorite has won seven of the last nine runnings, including Rachel Alexandra's historic victory over the boys last May.
Nevertheless, the race isn't run just for the betting choice's benefit. Longshots have fared very well this decade when it comes to rounding out the exacta.
Two years ago, 39-1 Macho Again finished second behind Big Brown, and in 2005, Scrappy T, the co-seventh choice, filled out a $152.60 exacta in back of the favored Afleet Alex.
When Funny Cide rolled to a 9 3/4-length score in 2003, Midway Road, the next- to-last longshot, held off third choice Scrimshaw by three-quarters of a length to complete a $120.60 exacta, and one year earlier, the locally-trained three-year-old Magic Weisner rallied for second behind War Emblem. The 45-1 shot combined with the winning favorite for a $327.00 payout.
If you like a longshot in this year's field, don't be fearful of betting him underneath the top two favorites.
Speaking of the Run for the Roses, after three straight years (2002-2004) of Derby winners capturing the second leg of the Triple Crown, only one has crossed the wire first at Pimlico since and that was the heavy 1-5 favorite, Big Brown.
Everyone remembers the tragedy that befell Barbaro in the 2006 running, and the following year, Street Sense failed to hold off the late charge by Curlin.
Not many folks expected Mine That Bird or Giacomo, the two 50-1 Derby winners, to come right back two weeks later and be draped with the Black-Eyed Susans, especially at 6-1 odds, but they both hit the board with the former running a game second to Rachel Alexandra and the latter finishing third behind Afleet Alex and Scrappy T.
Horses coming out of the Derby have won the Preakness 23 of the last 26 years, so on the surface, the odds look pretty sweet that Saturday's winner will be one of the five colts that raced at Churchill Downs on May 1. However, non- Derby horses have taken two of the last four as Bernardini and Rachel Alexandra crashed the party in 2006 and 2009, respectively.
My advice is to bet the horse with the best chance of winning, regardless of where he made his last start.
PREAKNESS TOSS-OUTS
Jackson Bend has finished first or second in nine of 10 career starts. However, his lone poor effort came on the biggest stage in the Kentucky Derby. The Nick Zito-trained colt had a decent trip in the Run for the Roses, but faltered late finishing 19-lengths behind Super Saver.
The son of Hear No Evil was bred to be a miler and it showed two weeks ago when he ran his final quarter-mile in 30 seconds flat. Harness horses come home faster than that!
Look for Jackson Bend to sit much closer to the pace on Saturday, but it's extremely doubtful he'll keep up with the other front runners through the stretch.
Due to his nose loss to Ice Box in the Florida Derby, Pleasant Prince lacked the graded earnings necessary to enter the Kentucky Derby. Nonetheless, his owner, Kenneth Ramsey, tried every which way possible to get the colt into the Churchill Downs starting gate, racing him twice in the month of April. Unfortunately, the plan backfired since Pleasant Prince lost by over nine lengths in both starts.
Most owners and trainers that skip the Derby and aim towards the Preakness do so to have a fresh horse on the third Saturday in May. However, Pleasant Prince does not fall into that category as this will be his third start in the last five weeks.
D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness five times, but the last came over a decade ago. He'll have a pair of colts in the 2010 running, one year after his Flying Private ran fourth at 25-1.
Northern Giant comes into the race off a last place finish in the Arkansas Derby. His two best races came in his two prior starts - the Risen Star (third) and Lane's End (second), but the winners of those two races - Discreetly Mine and Dean's Kitten - finished 13th and 14th in the Kentucky Derby.
Northern Giant has no business being in the starting gate.
Dublin, his other Preakness starter, ran very well underneath the Twin Spires finishing seventh, beaten 7 1/2-lengths. Breaking from post 17, the son of Afleet Alex was well back early on before making a powerful run around the far turn closing to within two lengths of the lead.
However, he ran like a very tired horse through the stretch, bearing in and out before faltering late. In addition, his bold middle move was obviously helped by the fast pace set by both Conveyance and Sidney's Candy.
Dublin will put forth another decent effort but the 1 3/16-mile distance will prove too much for him to handle.
First Dude is another horse that will have trouble getting the 9.5-furlongs. In his two graded stakes attempts at 1 1/8-miles, he dropped back a combined 7 1/2 lengths in the final two furlongs.
The son of Stephen Got Even did have to steady at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby, but he still finished more than six lengths behind Ice Box and Pleasant Prince. In the Blue Grass, he ran close to the pace early on, only to finish third, beaten over five lengths by Stately Victor.
The only chance First Dude has of finishing in the money is if he changes his running style from stalker to closer, but based on his last workout it's doubtful there'll be any transformation. The bay colt fired off a 1:00 3/5 bullet work at Churchill Downs, hitting the three-furlong marker in a brisk 35 1/5.
Like his former boss D. Wayne Lukas, Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher will have two colts on the track this Saturday.
Dogwood Stable's Aikenite joins Super Saver in Pletcher's quest to win his first ever Preakness Stakes, a race he's 0-4, including a last place finish in 2009 with Take the Points.
Aikenite, who has not won since breaking his maiden last August, has two in- the-money finishes this year along with a pair of clunkers. The colt does his best running from off-the-pace as witnessed by his exceptional efforts in last year's Hopeful Stakes and Breeders' Futurity, along with a second-place finish in the recently run Derby Trial. However, like many colts in the field, the final furlong will be his undoing.
Stay tuned later in the week for more analysis and predictions.
<< U.S. will face Colombia in Davis Cup playoff
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States will face Colombia in a
Davis Cup playoff from September 17-19.
The Americans were relegated to the World Group playoffs after losing to
Serbia 3-2 in the opening round of the
<< Jags sign LB Lehman
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Jacksonville Jaguars signed veteran
linebacker Teddy Lehman to an undisclosed contract on Tuesday.
Lehman last saw action in the NFL in 2008, when he played four games on
special teams for th
<< Grizzlies announce contract extension for Hollins
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Memphis Grizzlies finally made it official
Tuesday and announced a multi-year contract extension for head coach Lionel
Hollins.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Hollins had indicated last mo
<< Red Sox, Blue Jays resume series at Fenway
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While this season has been a struggle at times for the
Boston Red Sox, they've had little problem handling the Toronto Blue Jays thus
far in 2010.
Boston will take aim at a fifth consecutive victory over the Blue Jays whe
England names preliminary World Cup roster >>
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - England coach Fabio Capello selected a pair
of uncapped players, Tottenham defender Michael Dawson and Manchester City
winger Adam Johnson, to the 30-man preliminary World Cup roster Tuesday.
Capello al
Ransom, Grady & Everett earn weekly honors >>
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tulsa line backer JAMAR RANSOM, Oklahoma City
quarterback TOMMY GRADY and Milwaukee line backer MARCUS EVERETT have been
named the JLS Ironman, Russell Athletic Offensive Player and Riddell Defensive
Player of the W
Denmark includes Sorensen on provisional roster >>
Copenhagen, Denmark (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Stoke City goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen
has been named in Denmark's provisional World Cup squad despite doubts about
ability to play in South Africa.
Coach Morten Olsen had named the experienced keepe
Norway stuns Czechs at Worlds >>
Cologne, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Norway pulled off a stunning upset of the
Czech Republic on Tuesday at the 2010 World Hockey Championship, and Russia
also posted an easy win over Kazakhstan.
The Norwegians notched a 3-2 win thanks to
Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.
As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.
The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.
Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).
But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.
Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.
Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:
Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2
New York Giants - 9 - 2
Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).
Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.
So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.
And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.
They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.
Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.
But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.
Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.
Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.
Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.
Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?
Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.
In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.
Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.
Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.
The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.
The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.
Visit MySportsbook.com for free sportsbook odds RSS feeds go to MySportsbook.com for all your betting football needs.
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